October 2026 assessment
Occupations
Explore 20 occupations selected to illuminate different ways AI and robotics may change demand for human labor. Open each assessment to examine the evidence behind its outlook.
Why these 20 occupations?
EOL calls this deliberately selected group a sentinel panel: a group selected to represent a broad cross-section of knowledge and physical jobs, with varied technologies, tasks, skill requirements, industries, labor-supply conditions, and paths to adoption. By following these occupations closely over time, EOL can identify emerging transitions and draw insights about their wider labor-market implications without trying to track every occupation. The aim is breadth of perspective and depth of understanding, not an ever-larger list of jobs.
10Knowledge / AI
10Physical / Robotics
Occupation index
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Each row shows EOL’s current working outlook alongside two separate evidence judgments. Evidence Tilt summarizes the direction of the current evidence. Historical Continuity asks whether established technological and staffing relationships remain reliable enough to anchor a central forecast.
Evidence Tilt
Historical Continuity
20 occupations shown
| Occupation | EOL 2030 | EOL 2035 | Evidence Tilt | Historical Continuity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software Developers Knowledge / AI | -2% to +5% | -16% to +4% | Moderate displacement | Unlikely reliable as central assumption | → |
| Accountants & Auditors Knowledge / AI | -1% to +3% | -7% to +5% | Moderate displacement | Increasingly questionable | → |
| Lawyers Knowledge / AI | -1% to +3% | -7% to +5% | Moderate displacement | Increasingly questionable | → |
| Customer Service Representatives Knowledge / AI | -5% to -2% | -12% to -5% | Strong displacement | Increasingly questionable | → |
| Sales Representatives of Services Knowledge / AI | -1% to +2% | -8% to +3% | Moderate displacement | Increasingly questionable | → |
| Graphic Designers Knowledge / AI | -4% to +1% | -12% to 0% | Moderate displacement | Increasingly questionable | → |
| Secondary School Teachers Knowledge / AI | -1% to +2% | -3% to +2% | Balanced | Reasonable | → |
| Mechanical Engineers Knowledge / AI | +3% to +6% | +4% to +11% | Moderate toward employment | Reasonable | → |
| Family Medicine Physicians Knowledge / AI | +1% to +4% | +2% to +6% | Moderate toward employment | Reasonable | → |
| Secretaries & Administrative Assistants Knowledge / AI | -5% to -2% | -10% to -6% | Strong displacement | Increasingly questionable | → |
| Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners Physical / Robotics | -1% to +2% | -8% to +1% | Moderate displacement | Increasingly questionable | → |
| Freight/Stock/Material Movers, Hand Physical / Robotics | -4% to 0% | -10% to -3% | Moderate displacement | Increasingly questionable | → |
| Machine Feeders and Offbearers Physical / Robotics | -7% to -3% | -16% to -11% | Strong displacement | Reasonable | → |
| Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Physical / Robotics | -2% to +2% | -10% to +2% | Moderate displacement | Increasingly questionable | → |
| Construction Laborers Physical / Robotics | +3% to +6% | +3% to +8% | Balanced | Reasonable | → |
| Waiters & Waitresses Physical / Robotics | -2% to +1% | -5% to +2% | Moderate displacement | Increasingly questionable | → |
| Fast Food and Counter Workers Physical / Robotics | -1% to +3% | -8% to +2% | Moderate displacement | Increasingly questionable | → |
| Registered Nurses Physical / Robotics | +2% to +6% | +2% to +9% | Balanced | Reasonable | → |
| Home Health & Personal Care Aides Physical / Robotics | +6% to +11% | +8% to +18% | Moderate displacement | Increasingly questionable | → |
| Police & Sheriff’s Patrol Officers Physical / Robotics | 0% to +3% | 0% to +4% | Moderate displacement | Increasingly questionable | → |
Software Developers
EOL 2030-2% to +5%
EOL 2035-16% to +4%
Evidence TiltModerate evidence tilt toward displacement
Historical ContinuityUnlikely reliable as central assumption
Accountants & Auditors
EOL 2030-1% to +3%
EOL 2035-7% to +5%
Evidence TiltModerate evidence tilt toward displacement
Historical ContinuityIncreasingly questionable
Lawyers
EOL 2030-1% to +3%
EOL 2035-7% to +5%
Evidence TiltModerate evidence tilt toward displacement
Historical ContinuityIncreasingly questionable
Customer Service Representatives
EOL 2030-5% to -2%
EOL 2035-12% to -5%
Evidence TiltStrong evidence tilt toward displacement
Historical ContinuityIncreasingly questionable
Sales Representatives of Services
EOL 2030-1% to +2%
EOL 2035-8% to +3%
Evidence TiltModerate evidence tilt toward displacement
Historical ContinuityIncreasingly questionable
Graphic Designers
EOL 2030-4% to +1%
EOL 2035-12% to 0%
Evidence TiltModerate evidence tilt toward displacement
Historical ContinuityIncreasingly questionable
Secondary School Teachers
EOL 2030-1% to +2%
EOL 2035-3% to +2%
Evidence TiltBalanced evidence
Historical ContinuityReasonable
Mechanical Engineers
EOL 2030+3% to +6%
EOL 2035+4% to +11%
Evidence TiltModerate evidence tilt toward employment
Historical ContinuityReasonable
Family Medicine Physicians
EOL 2030+1% to +4%
EOL 2035+2% to +6%
Evidence TiltModerate evidence tilt toward employment
Historical ContinuityReasonable
Secretaries & Administrative Assistants
EOL 2030-5% to -2%
EOL 2035-10% to -6%
Evidence TiltStrong evidence tilt toward displacement
Historical ContinuityIncreasingly questionable
Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners
EOL 2030-1% to +2%
EOL 2035-8% to +1%
Evidence TiltModerate evidence tilt toward displacement
Historical ContinuityIncreasingly questionable
Freight/Stock/Material Movers, Hand
EOL 2030-4% to 0%
EOL 2035-10% to -3%
Evidence TiltModerate evidence tilt toward displacement
Historical ContinuityIncreasingly questionable
Machine Feeders and Offbearers
EOL 2030-7% to -3%
EOL 2035-16% to -11%
Evidence TiltStrong evidence tilt toward displacement
Historical ContinuityReasonable
Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
EOL 2030-2% to +2%
EOL 2035-10% to +2%
Evidence TiltModerate evidence tilt toward displacement
Historical ContinuityIncreasingly questionable
Construction Laborers
EOL 2030+3% to +6%
EOL 2035+3% to +8%
Evidence TiltBalanced evidence
Historical ContinuityReasonable
Waiters & Waitresses
EOL 2030-2% to +1%
EOL 2035-5% to +2%
Evidence TiltModerate evidence tilt toward displacement
Historical ContinuityIncreasingly questionable
Fast Food and Counter Workers
EOL 2030-1% to +3%
EOL 2035-8% to +2%
Evidence TiltModerate evidence tilt toward displacement
Historical ContinuityIncreasingly questionable
Registered Nurses
EOL 2030+2% to +6%
EOL 2035+2% to +9%
Evidence TiltBalanced evidence
Historical ContinuityReasonable
Home Health & Personal Care Aides
EOL 2030+6% to +11%
EOL 2035+8% to +18%
Evidence TiltModerate evidence tilt toward displacement
Historical ContinuityIncreasingly questionable
Police & Sheriff’s Patrol Officers
EOL 20300% to +3%
EOL 20350% to +4%
Evidence TiltModerate evidence tilt toward displacement
Historical ContinuityIncreasingly questionable
No occupations match the current filters.
Evidence Tilt is directional
It summarizes whether the current body of evidence pushes the assessment toward greater displacement or remains broadly balanced. It is not a probability or automation score. Methodology →
Historical Continuity tests the baseline
It asks whether the technological and labor relationships embedded in conventional historical projections still appear reliable enough to serve as a central forecast assumption. Methodology →