EOL
Working outlook
Occupation-specific 2030 and 2035 ranges formed from current employment position, the six transition stages, underlying demand, evidence synthesis, and labor-market timing.
September 2026 assessment
Forecasts Across Occupations
Compare EOL working outlooks with the BLS structural projection and Metaculus probabilistic forecasts across the 20-occupation pilot.
The largest differences emerge where EOL judges historical staffing relationships to be weakening.
BLS remains the structural reference. Metaculus provides an independent probabilistic calibration where EOL can establish a defensible occupation match. EOL working ranges reflect the full six-stage assessment rather than a mechanical average of external forecasts.
20Occupations
13BLS 2035 points above EOL range
16Metaculus matches
Cross-occupation view
2035 forecast landscape
EOL is shown as a range. BLS is shown as an official structural point projection. Metaculus is shown as the median of the mapped probabilistic forecast where a defensible match exists.
−20%
−10%
0%
+10%
+20%
All changes are relative to the 2025 BLS employment baseline. EOL bounds are the edges of a defensible current range, not statistical confidence intervals; outcomes outside the range remain possible. How EOL forms the range →
How to read the comparison
Three different forecasting roles
The sources answer related but different questions. The comparison is useful precisely because they should not be treated as interchangeable.
BLS
Structural reference
The indispensable official projection of occupational employment. EOL uses it as a structural reference while separately testing whether historical technological and staffing relationships remain reliable.
Metaculus
Probabilistic calibration
An independent probabilistic forecast used where EOL can establish a defensible occupation match. Broader proxy matches are identified explicitly and are not mechanically averaged into EOL.
Forecast matrix
All 20 occupation outlooks
The matrix puts the two EOL horizons beside the external 2035 reference points. Use the filters to isolate the knowledge or physical-automation groups.
| Occupation | EOL 2030 | EOL 2035 | BLS 2035 | Metaculus 2035 | Evidence tilt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O01 Software Developers SOC 15-1252 | -2% to +3% | -16% to +2% | +10.2% | −12.2% | Strong displacement |
| O02 Accountants & Auditors SOC 13-2011 | -1% to +3% | -7% to +3% | +5.0% | −14.2% | Moderate displacement |
| O03 Lawyers SOC 23-1011 | -1% to +3% | -7% to +3% | +4.7% | −12.3% | Moderate displacement |
| O04 Customer Service Representatives SOC 43-4051 | -5% to -2% | -12% to -5% | −5.3% | — | Strong displacement |
| O05 Sales Representatives of Services SOC 41-3091 | -1% to +2% | -8% to +2% | +2.7% | −10.1% | Strong displacement |
| O06 Graphic Designers SOC 27-1024 | -4% to 0% | -12% to -3% | −1.7% | −7.0% | Strong displacement |
| O07 Secondary School Teachers SOC 25-2031 | -1% to +2% | -3% to +2% | −0.2% | −5.6% | Balanced evidence |
| O08 Mechanical Engineers SOC 17-2141 | +3% to +6% | +4% to +9% | +11.2% | +0.8% | Balanced evidence |
| O09 Family Medicine Physicians SOC 29-1215 | +1% to +4% | +2% to +6% | +3.3% | +5.6% | Balanced evidence |
| O10 Secretaries & Administrative Assistants SOC 43-6014 | -5% to -2% | -12% to -6% | −6.0% | — | Strong displacement |
| O11 Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners SOC 37-2012 | -1% to +2% | -10% to 0% | +0.6% | −7.5% | Moderate displacement |
| O12 Freight/Stock/Material Movers, Hand SOC 53-7062 | -4% to 0% | -13% to -3% | +1.8% | −11.1% | Strong displacement |
| O13 Machine Feeders and Offbearers SOC 53-7063 | -7% to -3% | -16% to -11% | −13.1% | −11.1% | Strong displacement |
| O14 Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers SOC 53-3032 | -2% to +2% | -14% to -3% | +3.8% | — | Strong displacement |
| O15 Construction Laborers SOC 47-2061 | +3% to +6% | +3% to +8% | +7.3% | +4.3% | Balanced evidence |
| O16 Waiters & Waitresses SOC 35-3031 | -2% to +1% | -8% to 0% | +2.0% | −6.9% | Moderate displacement |
| O17 Fast Food and Counter Workers SOC 35-3023 | -1% to +3% | -12% to 0% | +5.8% | −6.9% | Strong displacement |
| O18 Registered Nurses SOC 29-1141 | +3% to +6% | +4% to +9% | +5.6% | +11.4% | Balanced evidence |
| O19 Home Health & Personal Care Aides SOC 31-1120 | +6% to +11% | -5% to +10% | +18.1% | — | Moderate displacement |
| O20 Police & Sheriff’s Patrol Officers SOC 33-3051 | 0% to +3% | -3% to +3% | +3.5% | +3.2% | Moderate displacement |
Software Developers
→EOL 2030-2% to +3%
EOL 2035-16% to +2%
BLS 2035+10.2%
Metaculus 2035−12.2%
Evidence Tilt · Strong evidence tilt toward displacement
Accountants & Auditors
→EOL 2030-1% to +3%
EOL 2035-7% to +3%
BLS 2035+5.0%
Metaculus 2035−14.2%
Evidence Tilt · Moderate evidence tilt toward displacement
Lawyers
→EOL 2030-1% to +3%
EOL 2035-7% to +3%
BLS 2035+4.7%
Metaculus 2035−12.3%
Evidence Tilt · Moderate evidence tilt toward displacement
Customer Service Representatives
→EOL 2030-5% to -2%
EOL 2035-12% to -5%
BLS 2035−5.3%
Metaculus 2035—
Evidence Tilt · Strong evidence tilt toward displacement
Sales Representatives of Services
→EOL 2030-1% to +2%
EOL 2035-8% to +2%
BLS 2035+2.7%
Metaculus 2035−10.1%
Evidence Tilt · Strong evidence tilt toward displacement
Graphic Designers
→EOL 2030-4% to 0%
EOL 2035-12% to -3%
BLS 2035−1.7%
Metaculus 2035−7.0%
Evidence Tilt · Strong evidence tilt toward displacement
Secondary School Teachers
→EOL 2030-1% to +2%
EOL 2035-3% to +2%
BLS 2035−0.2%
Metaculus 2035−5.6%
Evidence Tilt · Balanced evidence
Mechanical Engineers
→EOL 2030+3% to +6%
EOL 2035+4% to +9%
BLS 2035+11.2%
Metaculus 2035+0.8%
Evidence Tilt · Balanced evidence
Family Medicine Physicians
→EOL 2030+1% to +4%
EOL 2035+2% to +6%
BLS 2035+3.3%
Metaculus 2035+5.6%
Evidence Tilt · Balanced evidence
Secretaries & Administrative Assistants
→EOL 2030-5% to -2%
EOL 2035-12% to -6%
BLS 2035−6.0%
Metaculus 2035—
Evidence Tilt · Strong evidence tilt toward displacement
Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners
→EOL 2030-1% to +2%
EOL 2035-10% to 0%
BLS 2035+0.6%
Metaculus 2035−7.5%
Evidence Tilt · Moderate evidence tilt toward displacement
Freight/Stock/Material Movers, Hand
→EOL 2030-4% to 0%
EOL 2035-13% to -3%
BLS 2035+1.8%
Metaculus 2035−11.1%
Evidence Tilt · Strong evidence tilt toward displacement
Machine Feeders and Offbearers
→EOL 2030-7% to -3%
EOL 2035-16% to -11%
BLS 2035−13.1%
Metaculus 2035−11.1%
Evidence Tilt · Strong evidence tilt toward displacement
Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
→EOL 2030-2% to +2%
EOL 2035-14% to -3%
BLS 2035+3.8%
Metaculus 2035—
Evidence Tilt · Strong evidence tilt toward displacement
Construction Laborers
→EOL 2030+3% to +6%
EOL 2035+3% to +8%
BLS 2035+7.3%
Metaculus 2035+4.3%
Evidence Tilt · Balanced evidence
Waiters & Waitresses
→EOL 2030-2% to +1%
EOL 2035-8% to 0%
BLS 2035+2.0%
Metaculus 2035−6.9%
Evidence Tilt · Moderate evidence tilt toward displacement
Fast Food and Counter Workers
→EOL 2030-1% to +3%
EOL 2035-12% to 0%
BLS 2035+5.8%
Metaculus 2035−6.9%
Evidence Tilt · Strong evidence tilt toward displacement
Registered Nurses
→EOL 2030+3% to +6%
EOL 2035+4% to +9%
BLS 2035+5.6%
Metaculus 2035+11.4%
Evidence Tilt · Balanced evidence
Home Health & Personal Care Aides
→EOL 2030+6% to +11%
EOL 2035-5% to +10%
BLS 2035+18.1%
Metaculus 2035—
Evidence Tilt · Moderate evidence tilt toward displacement
Police & Sheriff’s Patrol Officers
→EOL 20300% to +3%
EOL 2035-3% to +3%
BLS 2035+3.5%
Metaculus 2035+3.2%
Evidence Tilt · Moderate evidence tilt toward displacement